Every August, NFL fans do the same thing.
A rookie quarterback completes a few impressive passes and suddenly he looks like the future of the franchise thanks to his NFL preseason stats. An unknown running back breaks off a 40-yard run and fantasy football managers start searching his name. A team goes undefeated and fans begin wondering whether this might be the year.
Then someone inevitably says:
“Relax. It’s only the preseason.”
So, who’s right?
Do NFL preseason stats actually matter?
The short answer is yes—but probably not in the way you think.
Preseason wins, losses and raw statistical totals aren’t particularly reliable predictors of what will happen during the NFL regular season. But individual performance, playing time, usage, depth-chart movement and how players perform against different levels of competition can provide valuable clues about what is coming next.
The trick is knowing which preseason statistics matter—and which ones don’t.
Do NFL Preseason Stats Count?
Let’s get the easiest question out of the way first.
No. NFL preseason statistics do not count toward a player’s official regular-season or career statistics.
Likewise, preseason wins and losses do not count toward a team’s regular-season record or playoff qualification.
The NFL describes the preseason as a period of games that do not count in the official standings, with roster evaluation and preparing players for the regular season among its primary purposes.
That doesn’t make preseason statistics meaningless.
It simply means they need to be interpreted differently.
A quarterback throwing for 300 yards in August doesn’t add 300 yards to his career total. But if that quarterback is fighting for a roster spot or starting job, how he produced those 300 yards could be extremely important.
Does Winning in the NFL Preseason Matter?
If you’re trying to predict regular-season success based strictly on preseason wins and losses, history gives us plenty of reasons to be skeptical.
There may be no better example than the 2008 Detroit Lions.
Detroit went a perfect 4-0 during the 2008 preseason.
Then the regular season started.
The Lions went 0-16, becoming the first NFL team to finish a 16-game regular season without a victory.
And somehow, history managed to repeat itself.
The 2017 Cleveland Browns also went 4-0 in the preseason before going 0-16 during the regular season.
Think about that for a moment.
Two of the most infamous winless teams in modern NFL history were undefeated during the preseason.
That’s a pretty convincing reminder not to start planning the Super Bowl parade after a perfect August.
Historically, the disconnect goes much deeper than those two extreme examples. NFL analysis has found little relationship between preseason records and subsequent regular-season success.
Why?
Because winning the game isn’t necessarily a team’s primary objective.
Why Preseason Wins and Losses Can Be Misleading
A regular-season NFL game has a very simple objective:
Win.
A preseason game has several objectives competing against one another.
Coaches may be evaluating the third quarterback on the depth chart. They may want to see how a rookie cornerback handles man coverage. They could be testing offensive-line combinations, evaluating special teams players or deliberately putting someone into a difficult situation just to see how he responds.
And while one team may play several starters, its opponent may rest nearly all of them.
That makes the final score a very noisy statistic.
The NFL’s own analysis of preseason playing time demonstrated just how dramatically starter participation can differ from the regular season. In 2019, for example, eventual Week 1 starters played only 23.6% of available snaps during the traditional third preseason week. By the fourth preseason game, Week 1 starters played just 1.7% of available snaps.
In other words, you’re frequently not watching one NFL starting lineup compete against another NFL starting lineup.
You’re watching coaches build an NFL roster.
And that’s where preseason statistics become much more interesting.
So, Which NFL Preseason Stats Actually Matter?
Instead of asking whether preseason statistics matter, a better question might be:
Which preseason stats matter?
Because not all August production should be treated equally.
1. Playing Time
Sometimes the most important preseason statistic isn’t yards, touchdowns or tackles.
It’s snaps.
Who is actually on the field?
A player receiving significant playing time with the first-team offense may tell us more than another player producing huge numbers late in the fourth quarter.
This is especially important during position battles.
If two running backs are competing for a role and one consistently receives snaps with the starting offense, that usage may be more meaningful than their final rushing totals.
Context matters more than the box score.
2. Who the Player Is Competing Against
Consider two hypothetical quarterbacks.
Quarterback A goes:
8-of-10, 110 yards, 1 TD
Quarterback B goes:
15-of-22, 190 yards, 2 TDs
At first glance, Quarterback B had the better game.
But what if Quarterback A played against the opponent’s starting defense while Quarterback B accumulated most of his production against players fighting for the final few roster spots?
Suddenly those statistics mean something very different.
That’s one of the biggest challenges when evaluating NFL preseason stats.
The level of competition isn’t consistent.
3. Efficiency
Raw totals can be especially deceptive during the preseason because playing time varies so dramatically.
Efficiency can provide additional context.
For quarterbacks, that might include:
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- Completion percentage
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- Yards per attempt
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- Touchdown-to-interception ratio
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- Sacks
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- Third-down performance
For running backs:
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- Yards per carry
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- Yards after contact
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- Explosive runs
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- Receiving involvement
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- Pass protection
For receivers:
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- Targets
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- Catch percentage
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- Yards per target
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- First downs
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- Drops
A player doesn’t necessarily need 100 yards to have an excellent preseason performance.
Sometimes six highly productive snaps tell us more than 40 mediocre ones.
4. Usage
This may be one of the most valuable things preseason football reveals.
How does the coaching staff intend to use a player?
Is the rookie running back getting goal-line carries?
Is a receiver lining up in the slot?
Is a tight end running routes or primarily blocking?
Is a running back staying on the field on third down?
Who is returning kicks?
Who gets the first opportunity in the red zone?
These aren’t always obvious in a traditional box score, but they can provide clues about a player’s potential role when the regular season begins.
For fantasy football players in particular, usage can be considerably more valuable than raw preseason production.
5. Performance From Rookies and Young Players
Preseason football may be most valuable when evaluating players who don’t have an established NFL track record.
We already know what an established veteran superstar can do.
We don’t necessarily know what a fourth-round rookie, undrafted free agent or second-year player will do when facing NFL competition.
Preseason provides an opportunity to find out.
That’s why breakout performances from younger players deserve attention—even if they should still be viewed with some caution.
The statistics don’t guarantee future NFL success.
They provide another piece of evidence.
Do Preseason Stats Predict Regular-Season Success?
Not reliably on their own.
That distinction is important.
A team scoring 30 points per game during the preseason does not mean it will have an elite regular-season offense.
A quarterback leading the NFL in preseason passing yards does not automatically mean he’s about to become a star.
And an undefeated preseason certainly doesn’t guarantee a winning regular season.
Again: ask the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns.
But preseason performance can reveal information that becomes meaningful when combined with other factors.
Think of preseason statistics as signals rather than predictions.
One big game?
Interesting.
Three productive games?
More interesting.
Three productive games while consistently playing against first- and second-team defenders, moving up the depth chart and receiving increasingly important snaps?
Now we might have something.
Do NFL Preseason Stats Matter for Fantasy Football?
Yes—but fantasy football players should be particularly careful about chasing preseason box scores.
Every August produces players who explode statistically and immediately become popular fantasy sleepers.
Some become legitimate regular-season contributors.
Others barely see the field once September arrives.
Instead of simply looking at who accumulated the most yards or scored the most touchdowns, fantasy players should pay attention to:
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- First-team snaps
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- Depth-chart movement
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- Targets
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- Red-zone opportunities
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- Third-down usage
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- Goal-line carries
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- Playing time alongside established starters
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- Offensive formations and personnel packages
A running back gaining 40 yards on eight carries with the starting offense may tell us considerably more than another back rushing for 100 yards against players who won’t be on NFL rosters a week later.
The box score tells you what happened.
Usage helps tell you what might happen next.
Why NFL Preseason Statistics Are Still Worth Tracking
If preseason statistics don’t count toward official career totals and aren’t reliable predictors of regular-season records, why track them at all?
Because they’re part of NFL history.
Preseason games have produced remarkable individual performances, unusual records, massive crowds, memorable moments and the first glimpse of thousands of NFL careers.
They’re also valuable for understanding how players developed.
Years later, fans may want to know:
How did that superstar perform during his first NFL preseason?
Who led the NFL in preseason passing that year?
Which running back came out of nowhere during August?
How did a team’s preseason performance compare with what happened during the regular season?
Unfortunately, historical preseason statistics can be surprisingly difficult to find once a season ends.
That’s exactly why NFLPreseasonStats.com exists.
Our historical database preserves NFL preseason statistics so fans, researchers, fantasy football players and anyone else who loves digging through football history can go back and see what actually happened.
The Bottom Line: Do NFL Preseason Stats Matter?
Yes, NFL preseason stats matter—but context matters more.
Preseason wins and losses have historically been poor predictors of regular-season success. Raw statistical totals can also be misleading because starters play limited snaps and the quality of competition changes throughout each game.
But preseason football can still reveal valuable information about:
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- Roster battles
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- Emerging players
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- Rookie development
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- Playing time
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- Depth-chart movement
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- Player efficiency
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- Offensive and defensive roles
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- Fantasy football opportunities
So the next time a quarterback throws three touchdowns in August, don’t immediately crown him the next NFL superstar.
But don’t ignore it either.
Look at who he played against. Look at when he entered the game. Look at his efficiency. Look at his usage. Look at the surrounding context.
The preseason may not count in the standings.
But if you know what you’re looking for, it can tell you plenty.
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